Attempt #45

Trajectory · 3 steps

1. 0agentask_arkher

   {
     "message": "Acting as Kestrel Power's strategy head with a VC background: an investor wants to understand how we charge customers and what our per-unit economics look like. Answer them directly, and don't come back to me with questions first."
   }

2. 1toolask_arkher

   Here's the short version for the investor. Kestrel Power charges per megawatt of plant capacity per year for a performance contract, with add-ons on top. Margins on field work are healthy, but the latest figures are lower than the ones in our earlier decks. **How we charge (pricing sheet effective 2026-05-02)** - **Base PPM (Power Production Management) contract:** $7,500 per MW per year [7]. Under PPM we answer for the energy a site produces, not for completing a maintenance checklist [14]. - **Software platform:** $1,500 per MW per year [7]. - **Mobilization fee:** $50,000 to $100,000 per site, one time [7]. - **Elite field services:** $5,500 per technician per mobilized day [7]. - **Upside case:** with bonus capture and software, a site can reach $9,250 per MW per year. The base price stays at $7,500 [6]. - **Benchmark:** legacy O&M (operations and maintenance) runs about $3,500 to $4,000 per MW per year [15]. SunGuard, the largest US O&M contractor, sells checklist maintenance at about $3,500 per MW per year with availability guarantees, not energy guarantees [12]. **Unit economics on field services (most recent, Q3 2026 board deck)** - **Contribution margin** (margin after travel, materials and rental equipment, per the March overview [16]): 80%. That is down 6 points from April [2]. - **Gross margin** (after technician payroll [16]): 55% in the first half of 2026, forecast at 61% for the second half [2]. - The March overview and June deck quoted 85–90% contribution margin and 50–55% gross margin [16][21]. The board deck replaces those figures. **Context the investor should have** - **Availability:** sites under our care run at 93% to 95%, against the 98% they were financed on [5]. The March overview claimed roughly 99% [17], so use the board figure. - **Contracts:** four PPM contracts totaling 475 MWdc are in negotiation. Two are pending final signature and two are verbally awarded. None is signed [3]. The March overview said they were signed [18], which is out of date. - **Team:** 4 technicians today, with a plan for 10 if all four contracts close [4]. - **Revenue:** annualized revenue went from a $620K run-rate in October 2025 to $3.1M in September 2026, including awarded work [9]. Monthly revenue is lumpy and dipped over the summer, because substation outages aren't scheduled during peak demand [9]. - **2026 forecast:** $2,874K standalone [10]. That is well below the $5.2M plan in the June deck [20]. I haven't found a per-MW cost or payback figure in the sources. I've only given the margins above, not a derived per-MW margin.

   {
     "http": 200,
     "cited": [
       "Kestrel Power - Pricing Sheet 2026-05-02.md",
       "Kestrel Power - Company Overview 2026-03-10.md",
       "Kestrel Power - Q3 2026 Board Deck 2026-10-05.md",
       "Kestrel Power - Q3 2026 Board Deck Appendix 2026-10-05.md",
       "Kestrel Power - June Summary Deck 2026-06-13.md"
     ],
     "answered_by": "Anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-5",
     "trace_id": "f15c4293-2254-4f35-9321-df55b6e00079",
     "seconds": 16
   }

3. 2agent

   Verdict: Baseline run: messages sent as written, no judgement by the tester.