Attempt #51

Trajectory · 3 steps

1. 0agentask_arkher

   {
     "message": "Acting as Kestrel Power's strategy head with a VC background: an investor wants to understand how we charge customers and what our per-unit economics look like. Answer them directly, and don't come back to me with questions first."
   }

2. 1toolask_arkher

   Here's a direct answer for the investor. It covers how Kestrel Power charges and what the unit economics look like. I've used the latest board deck (Q3 2026, held 2026-10-05) wherever it differs from earlier materials. **How we charge** - **Core contract.** Our Power Production Management (PPM) contract makes us accountable for the energy a site produces, not for completing a maintenance checklist. The base price is $7,500 per MW per year, and the Q3 board deck confirms it is unchanged [14][6][7]. Legacy O&M (operations and maintenance) runs about $3,500 to $4,000 per MW per year [15]. - **Add-ons.** Software costs $1,500 per MW per year. A mobilization fee of $50,000 to $100,000 per site is charged once. Elite field services cost $5,500 per technician per mobilized day (pricing sheet effective 2026-05-02) [7]. - **Upside per site.** With bonus capture and software, a site can reach $9,250 per MW per year [6]. That is the upside case, not the base price. **Unit economics** - **Contribution margin** (field services revenue after travel, materials and rental equipment) is 80%. That is down 6 points from April [2]. Earlier decks said roughly 85% to 90% [16][21], so use the board figure. - **Gross margin on field services** (after technician payroll) was 55% in the first half. The forecast for the second half is 61% [2]. The earlier decks said 50% to 55% [16][21]. - **Customer value.** Sites we manage run at 93% to 95% availability, against the 98% they were financed on [5]. Our PPM contract commits to 98% weather-adjusted energy [12]. **Context an investor will ask about** - **Run-rate revenue.** It grew from $620K in October 2025 to $3.1M in September 2026, and that figure includes awarded work [9]. The full-year 2026 forecast is $2,874K standalone [10]. The June deck's plan of $5.2M has been superseded [20]. - **Contract status.** Four PPM contracts totaling 475 MWdc are in negotiation. Two are pending final signature and two are verbally awarded. None is signed [3]. The March overview said they were signed, so that wording is out of date [18]. - **Team.** We have 4 technicians today. The plan is 10 if all four contracts close [4]. The March overview said 12 [18], and the board deck is the more recent source. Kestrel Robotics is a separate company, so I excluded its margins.

   {
     "http": 200,
     "cited": [
       "Kestrel Power - Company Overview 2026-03-10.md",
       "Kestrel Power - Q3 2026 Board Deck 2026-10-05.md",
       "Kestrel Power - Pricing Sheet 2026-05-02.md",
       "Kestrel Power - June Summary Deck 2026-06-13.md",
       "Kestrel Power - Q3 2026 Board Deck Appendix 2026-10-05.md"
     ],
     "answered_by": "Anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-5",
     "trace_id": "b4173770-ae35-4090-bcdb-4ad1d187c8d3",
     "seconds": 21
   }

3. 2agent

   Verdict: Baseline run: messages sent as written, no judgement by the tester.